周日隔夜交易中，股票期货价格攀升，市场在经历了一轮下跌后试图在感恩节假期周迎来反弹，此前的跌势令今年人工智能（AI）引领的牛市行情受挫。
道琼斯工业平均指数期货上涨200点，标普500指数期货攀升0.6%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨幅达0.8%。因感恩节假期，美国股市周四全天休市，周五将于美国东部时间下午1点提前收盘。
在纽约联邦储备银行行长对12月降息持开放态度后，股市正试图延续上周五开始的强劲反弹。然而，由于市场重新审视推动2025年大部分涨幅的人工智能相关个股的过高估值，主要股指自本月以来仍大幅下挫。
标普500指数上周下跌2%，使其11月累计跌幅达到3.5%。纳斯达克综合指数上周下挫2.7%，本月累计下跌6.1%。由30只蓝筹股组成的道琼斯工业平均指数上周下跌1.9%，本月迄今累计跌幅为2.8%。
11月的最后阶段可能同样不会轻松。随着未来几日交易量预计将减少，且美联储12月政策会议前缺乏有意义的催化剂，市场波动性可能加剧。
西伯特金融公司首席投资官马克·马莱克在一份报告中表示：“投资者厌恶市场噪音，他们渴望确定性，但当前市场根本无法提供这种确定性。”
本周关键的宏观经济事件包括周二公布的美国10月零售销售数据和生产者价格指数（PPI），这两项数据或将影响市场对美联储年内最后一次会议的预期。
在纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯暗示他认为利率存在"进一步调整"空间后，市场对12月降息的预期显著升温。
他在智利圣地亚哥的一场演讲中表示："我认为当前的货币政策略显紧缩，尽管相比近期政策调整前已有所缓和。因此，我仍认为短期内存在进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间，以使政策立场更接近中性区间，从而保持我们实现双重目标之间的平衡。"
芝加哥商品交易所（CME）FedWatch数据显示，期货市场目前预测美联储在12月10日举行的年度最后一次会议上再次降息25个基点的概率已升至近70%，而一周前这一概率仅为44%。当前美联储基准利率维持在3.75%至4.00%区间。
李云
投资者正艰难应对政府经济数据的动荡局面。
周五，交易员获悉，由于美国劳工统计局取消了10月消费者价格指数的发布，美联储在下次利率决议前将无法获得关键通胀数据。
原定于12月10日发布的11月CPI报告也被推迟至12月18日公布，将在美联储会议之后发布。
李云
Stock futures climbed in overnight trading Sunday as the market seeks to rebound into the Thanksgiving holiday week after a slide that's knocked the air out of this year's AI bull run.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 200 points. S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% and Nasdaq-100 futures increased 0.8%. The stock market is closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day, and it shuts down early at 1 p.m. ET on Friday.
Stocks are attempting to build on a strong rebound that started on Friday, after the head of the New York Federal Reserve left the door open to a December interest rate cut . Major averages have still stumbled sharply since the month began, pressured by a reconsideration of sky-high valuations across artificial intelligence-linked names that had powered much of 2025's market gains.
The S&P 500 slipped 2% last week, bringing its November decline to 3.5%. The Nasdaq Composite shed 2.7% in the prior week and is down 6.1% for the month. The 30-stock Dow fell 1.9% last week and is off 2.8% month-to-date.
The final stretch of November may be no easier. With trading volumes expected to thin out in the coming days and few meaningful catalysts ahead of the Fed's December policy meeting, volatility could pick up.
"Investors hate noise. They crave certainty, and the market simply cannot deliver that right now," Mark Malek, CIO at Siebert Financial, said in a note.
Key macro events this week include October U.S. retail sales and October Producer Price Index data on Tuesday, both of which could help shape expectations heading into the Fed's final meeting of the year.
Expectations for a December rate cut jumped noticeably after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams signaled he sees room for "further adjustment" to interest rates.
"I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions," he said in remarks for a speech in Santiago, Chile. "Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals."
Futures markets now assign almost a 70% probability that the Fed will trim rates by another quarter point at its final meeting of the year on Dec. 10 up from about 44% a week earlier, CME FedWatch data show. The Fed's benchmark rate currently sits between 3.75% and 4.00%.
Yun Li
Investors are grappling with the shaky state of government economic data.
On Friday, traders learned the Fed won't receive a key inflation reading before its next rate decision, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics scrapped the release of October's consumer price index.
November's CPI report originally set for Dec. 10 has also been pushed to Dec. 18, coming after the Fed meets.
Yun Li
